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2017-11-01

the end of oil industry




Electric Car Battery Costs Are Falling as Fast as Solar Panel Costs. Costs are plunging in the electric vehicles business as quickly as they did in the solar industry in the last decade. The price of lithium-ion batteries that power most electric cars has fallen 60% from 2010 and will keep declining at the same pace, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysts. In the same time the energy density of Li-ion batteries went up over 50%. This trend will bring the price of no-pollution cars within striking distance of ones that require gasoline within a decade. Big Oil Is About to Lose Control of the Auto Industry



The global market for e-bikes will grow at a modest rate of 3.42% and 4.35% in terms of revenue and unit shipment respectively, during the period 2014-2019. While North America, Western Europe and Latin America will show signs of growth, China would remain dominant and Western Europe closely following second. As per research on e-bike market, China reached 28 million e-bicycles in 2013, which was 92% of the total world market.


China produced 82 million bicycles as well as 37 million e-bikes in 2013. Export value levelled and stood at USD 3,169 million, this indicates that the average value per exported bike stood at 55.64 US dollar (€ 43.19) in 2013. According to Eurostat figures, the EU imported 420,000 bikes from China in 2013; a big 35% up from the 2012 total of 311,000 units. In the first half of 2014 bike import from China continued to grow; with 13% to close to a quarter of a million units. Also average value per imported bike was on the rise and big; with 69% to 43 euro.
The European Commission decided to maintain the dumping measures with 48.5% anti-dumping duty to be levied on complete bikes imported from China. However, to anyone’s surprise three Chinese companies were exempted from the 48.5% dumping duty: Zhejiang Baoguilai Vehicle Co. Ltd.: 19.2% duty; Oyama Bicycles (Taicang) Co. Ltd.: 0% duty and Ideal (Dongguan) Bike Co., Ltd.: 0% duty.

The beginning of the end: The shift occurred in 2013, when the world added 143 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity, compared with 141 gigawatts in new plants that burn fossil fuels, according to an analysis presented Tuesday at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual summit in New York. The shift will continue to accelerate, and by 2030 more than four times as much renewable capacity will be added. The price of wind and solar power continues to plummet, and is now on par or cheaper than grid electricity in many areas of the world.

Studies published by 10 research institutes and consultancies show a dramatic fall in battery cost over the next two decades. Since 2011 the number of electric vehicles worldwide has doubled each year. The cost of full automotive Lithium ion battery packs has already reduced to around US$410 per kWh industry-wide. Market-leading manufacturers such as Nissan and Tesla are already seeing prices around US$300 per kWh. In our previous work we estimated these levels to be reached only in 2018 and 2022, respectively. We are seeing annual battery cost reductions of 14%, battery cost for all involved should converge to around US$230 per kWh in 2017-2018. This is seven years earlier than estimated in our previous analysis. Assuming continued electric vehicle sales growth, costs as low as US$200 per kWh are possible without further improvements in the cell chemistry. Companies in the sector are well aware of this potential for transition. This explains why, for example, Tesla Motors is making a US$5 billion dollar bet in the shape of a massive battery factory.